Wednesday, February 04, 2009

JET STREAM PATTERN

small images

By clicking on the link above you can see where your 60% chance of rain might be.

13 comments:

ENFORCER said...

DR. RALPH: NOW LISTEN UP, AND LIDTEN UP GOOD. 60% CHANCE OF RAIN MEANS NO RAIN. PERIOD! END OF REPORT!

Dr. George said...

I can tell with out a doubt that one of Dr. Ralphs numerous doctorates is in meteorology. You should bet the farm on his expertise!

Dr. Ralph said...

The 60% chance of measurable rain that is foretasted for tomorrow simply means.
That 60% of the stations that measure rain will likely get precipitation.

Anonymous said...

Huh! What. Sketchy is my favorit adjetive. Spell checer is still broken.

[60%]

Anonymous said...

Huh! What. Sketchy is my favorit adjetive. Spell checer is still broken.

[60%]

Fats Flannighan said...

those animated photos gave me a stiffy. Highly erotic.

Dallas Rains said...

Dr. Ralph was my mentor and I still look up to him. He has impecable credentials.

Nay Sayer said...

60% chance of rain only means there is 40% chance of no rain.

In simple terms said...

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST WED FEB 04 2009

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 14 2009

THE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA AND ARE SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WITH A PRONOUNCED TROUGH
IN BETWEEN, CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHILE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREDOMINATE IN THE EAST. THE GFS SUGGESTS A WEAKENING
EASTERN RIDGE AND A TRANSITION TO COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE EAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A SLOWER TRANSITION. THE CANADIAN MODEL
REPRESENTS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND HAS BEEN EMPHASIZED
IN TODAYS BLEND. A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION, AND THE WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WELL SOUTH OF
THE EXPECTED STORM TRACK, AND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BEHIND THE WESTERN TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL OVER MOST OF ALASKA, SUGGESTING A CONTINUATION OF COLD CONDITIONS
OVER THE STATE, WITH BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.

THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE AUTO BLEND FORECAST, KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION
FORECAST, CALIBRATED MODEL PRECIPITATION, AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE
MANUAL BLEND.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 18 2009

THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS
PREDICTED OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. MODELS AGREE THAT A
BUILDING HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING RIDGE JUST WEST OF GREENLAND WILL BRING A
TRANSITION TO THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE 500-HPA HEIGHTS
LOWER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BETWEEN THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY PERIODS, RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM THE PERSISTENT WESTERN TROUGH TO
THE EAST COAST. THIS SUGGESTS AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
TO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN CONUS COMPARED
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN
THE WEST UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
FORECASTED FROM SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TO NEW ENGLAND NEAR THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK.
BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND FOR
FLORIDA. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BEHIND THE WESTERN TROUGH. CONDITIONS IN
ALASKA ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5, IN SPITE OF GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, DUE TO TIMING DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXPECTED TRANSITION IN UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.

THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON: THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
KLEIN AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, THE AUTO BLEND
TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AND THE CDC TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON: THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST,
THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, AND ANALOG SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND.



FORECASTER: DAVE UNGER

NOTES:

OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.

THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW

IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.

THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
FEBRUARY 19.

NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19850216 - 19650129 - 19640210 - 19710130 - 19840129

ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19850217 - 19550210 - 19570212 - 19640211 - 19840129


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 10 - 14 2009

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B B NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA N B WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A B W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B B
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B B


8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR FEB 12 - 18 2009

STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B B NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B N
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO N A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B B

LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

Dr. Ralph said...

Ah yes, the old millibar chart.
You can count on that all the time.

Good job and well done Simple.

Anonymous said...

Simple Simon, it's a foregone conclusion, idle hands are the devil's workshop.

U.R. Shittenmee said...

In Simple Terms:

I don't know what to say

U.R. Shittenmee said...

I concur.

Moon Phase